Microsoft recently conceded the Vista struggle and is now refocusing it's market on the yet-to-materialize Windows 7. Sure, Vista is slow and piggish and has some rather cute ideas of what "bling" means. Sure, it found new ways to annoy users and drag usability down. But in past years, they could have pushed that down the throat of the market. We know they could have because they did: each version of Windows that came out required more hardware and had its own "fun" quirks. One might point to the increased stability of XP as a difference, but then Vista has its improvements in that area as well.
In past rev cycles, people would have just beefed up their computers and learned to deal with the new funk. If we look at all the consumer level computers out right now, they are currently capable of running Vista and the hardware companies love the idea of selling bigger systems and seeing hardware churn due to increasing software requirements. But right now that's pretty much all that is propping Vista up: pre-installs on those new beefier-than-2-years-ago machines.
This is not 1998 or 2001 anymore; this time Microsoft failed to push their product out against the desire of the market. What's changed? The market has choice, and it knows it.
People now see both Linux and Mac as viable options and no longer feel beholden to trudge along besides Microsoft and their pace. These platforms are now viable because of their improved user interfaces and friendliness, and even the Mac would not be where it is right now without Free software for them to build on (and occasionally mistreat in the process, unfortunately).
We should see the failure of Vista as a success for us that we helped create. Of course, KDE is not yet the dominant user platform so we shouldn't smile and be happy with it. Microsoft won't stop, Apple won't stop, neither should we.
I see three new battle lines for us over the next five years: making Windows 7 look as bad or worse than Vista does in comparison to our offerings (while continuing to land beachheads with our applications on that operating system); taking Windows Mobile off the table as a choice; besting the iP-devices (iPhone, iPod) on the consumer market. We have all the tools available to us, we just need to execute over the next 2-3 years.
I write this because I continue to see "why Vista sucks" articles being written and can't help but think that that battle is done, so we need to move our sights on to new fields. I write this because I see more and more Linux based mobile coming out, but most of it is really sub-par and that concerns me.
We know that our strengths are community and ubiquity. Those are awesome strengths because they play directly into the trends that are likely to play out over the next 10 years in the industry, namely increasing socialization of technology and the spread of these technologies to cover the desktop, the portable, the phone and the web with such vigor that we won't even recognize the landscape in 10 years time. Let's continue to underscore those strengths, make the world aware of them and continue to make the best damn software money can't buy. =)
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Whilst I agree that Vista was not as good as expected, i.e. I finally decided/had enough time to jump the Windows ship I'm still impressed that it seems to have soldiered on. When you look back at some of the articles being written before its launch, predicting the death of Windows and Microsoft's bankruptcy it seems to have actually done quite well.
As you say, Windows 7 is the sticking point. Microsoft, and normal users, are aware that Vista was a, shall we say, disappointment, and Microsoft really does need to get Win7 right to regain control of these markets. I agree that free software in general (not just KDE) needs to be prepared to battle Microsoft for "market share", in order, at least, to liberate people from the joys of Windows - but we should be drawing our battle lines on the assumption that Microsoft don't make a pig's ear of Win7. That way we're prepared as well for them to fail.
The other point I'd like to raise, is that whilst for those of us who do computers (in my case programming) do choose our OS based upon technical values, many users stick with Windows (XP/Vista/...7?) because it came installed. As such it's important to get OEMs to offer choice aswell.
I don't think Vista is doing badly because all of a sudden Linux is a credible alternative - the masses aren't all installing Kubuntu instead. I think it's simply a combination of XP being so markedly superior to previous version of windows (9x), that it's 'good enough' - i.e., Vista isn't that big a leap from XP. Plus, I think the average user is maybe upgrading less frequently?
@AndyM103: absolutely agreed. OEMs are critical and never plan expecting competition to simply hand you the win by failing or giving up =)
@matt: Vista is doing OK-ish in the consumer market because it's pre-installed an as you note people don't care *that* much, as you note. They use whatever comes on the computer they pick up at $CHEAP_ELECTRONICS_SHOP.
Where it is stinking up the house is in the business market and consumer upgrade sales.
And that market has very much been altered by the viability of alternatives. It's no longer enough to just release a new version, Microsoft now has to justify the upgrade as management acknowledges there are alternatives. This is a huge shift from even just five years ago.
We're also winning a lot of market outside of North America and in "blue ocean" product segments such as netbooks. This is influencing things as well.
So while I'm certainly not claiming a mythical victory for KDE or Linux on the desktop ... I am, however, absolutely claiming that there has been a shift in attitude in the market, particular in the business markets, and that the rise of perceived-as-viable alternatives has a lot to do with it.
Victory is a step or three after that point ;)
Vista succes or Windows in general succes, has nothing to do with the desktop only, Windows is an ecosystem of applications, MS Office, Flash, Photoshop, .NET, etc. etc.
At the the desktop it doesn't matter but the applications.
What KDE has to compete?
Asuming that the desktop is only the shell and the applications are the important ones.
Fully agree with that last part. Still waiting for a decent linux-based pda/phone (are you there nokia? care to put a gsm modem on the N810?).
[...] make the world aware of them and continue to make the best damn software money can't buy.
This is the best motto about FLOSS ever read.
@Ramsees: KDE is an ecosystem (not to mention the broader FOSS ecosystem), so saying "At the the desktop it doesn't matter but the applications." is a bit nonsensical.
I mean, yes, I agree it's the applications and what you can do with them.
KDE has to offer a lot in that area, as it's a lot more than just a desktop shell. There are thousands of KDE apps out there, even more Qt-only apps, and tons of non-KDE/Qt apps that run alongside our ecosystem's output as well.
In fact, for every one of the four items you mentioned we have either the same (Flash) or competitors. Granted, some of our competing entries are still maturing (office in particular; KOffice2 is embryonic still and OO.o3 isn't a killer yet either), but our focus is very much on a software ecosystem.
If you read the original KDE announcement from '96 you'll see that it actually always was.
"The market has choice, and it knows it."
Not only that, the market needs to know that there are choices beyond the usual bundling of AOL/Quicktime/íTunes on the desktop. Maybe we won't be able to convert everyone to a totally FOSS system, but the day I see Amarok2 and kdelibs preinstalled on win32 desktops will be a great day indeed. Everyone I have shown the great, pretty light weight and still extensible KDE applications love them - but they won't necessarily move away from their Windows home they got used to for them. Pushing our favorite KDE applications onwards to their Windows desktops will be more like viral marketing - people will use them, people will like them and people will want to know where they come from. That's why I totally support the multi-platform nature of KDE4 - to some people it might seem like taking a step backwards, but in the long run it might be three steps in the right direction.
@azmd: The danger of pushing too much to the Windows platform is then that people have no desire to use everything the free software world produces. Why do I care that they do?
1. Because I never want to have to fix an Windows computer again, yes, it pays well - but never again!
2. Because I think everyone deserves freedom, and whilst having a free music player, per se, is good if you are still running an OS that restricts your freedom then you're still tied.
Having said that, with my application developer hat on, I love being able to push KDE apps to other systems!
Well Aaron, I'm glad to see you're "following" my thinking. I frequent financial blogs, and I continually mention that Linux and OSX are providing a good alternative to Vista. I specifically mention KDE (when appropriate) with specifically thinking of KDE4 (and plasmoids). I eventually see Linux (with KDE) being installed on lower-end systems by end users who can't take Vista and can't find XP+SP3. I have even gone so far as to predict that MS will buy AAPL if Windows 7 fails. The reason is that OSs and applications are being commoditized by free software offerings. Windows never made as much money as Office did. Now, office is limited by OOO.org and KOffice... Given that I still use Office 97 (11 years old!) Linux is a "sure-thing" in my future as my primary OS.
I thought you all would appreciate this:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/102774/Microsoft-Windows%3A-The-Beginning-of-the-End
The only way all this will happen is if we get a 'Start KDE' marketing campaign with the ability to download a desktop OS geared fully towards integrating and using KDE. That is the only way you can make your 'ecosystem' work. While it's great that there are thousands of applications out there for Qt and KDE, alas, it doesn't mean a damn thing if your users can't install them and developers aren't confident that they can be installed with their effort wasted.
That's ultimately why we get KDE and Linux on some Netbooks, and all that is rolled back once the inevitable Windows deal is signed. There's not quite enough to sustain an OEM using Linux, even where Windows might not be needed.
Windows 7 is looking an awful lot like kde4:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081028-first-look-at-windows-7.html
Best marketing you could do is implement _all_ of Windows 7 "UI improvements" in KDE4. Most of them are already there, so it may not be too hard. Some might be really beneficial to KDE4.
"KDE 4.2: Get Windows 7 features and more NOW."
Do you know what's kinda scary? The proposed Widows 7 Design (see here) is a straight KDE 3 rip-off. The Taskbar couldn't be more similar: the Internet Explorer "Session-Applet" (or whatever it is) reminds me very much of a certain kicker applet, the button on the right border looks just like the hide button and so on...
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